Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Lefty Poll Shows Romney Pulling Away From Obama

(Daily Kos) Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos and SEIU asked respondents: The candidates for President are Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Obama 46 (47)
Romney 50 (49)

At a time when other polls are moving back in the president's direction, our own weekly poll by Public Policy Polling saw the opposite—a two-point Romney gain. Per day:
Friday (38%) Obama 47, Romney 49
Saturday (39%) Obama 49, Romney 47
Sunday (24%) Obama 43, Romney 55

That Sunday sample, about a quarter of the total, was entirely responsible for Romney's favorable numbers. That's why the good pollsters collect data over multiple days, to smooth out such irregularities. And at 400 respondents (or so), Sunday had a single-day MoE of 4.9 percent.

Lots of polls float around with worse. On the other hand, Saturday's sample MoE was 3.92 percent, while Friday's was 3.97 percent. And with no external news even suggesting the big Sunday collapse, it certainly smells like an outlier.

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Posted By: Chris Carmouche