Rick Santorum: The Inevitable Nominee
(The Daily Caller) Rick Santorum is riding a huge surge coming out of his victories in Minnesota, Colorado, and Missouri — but I don’t think the punditry recognizes the enormity of that surge. Conventional wisdom says we could now be on the road to a brokered convention, or a long Romney-Santorum fight, but that is not what the data suggests. As of now, all of the data suggests that this race will end on March 6th. On that night, there is a good chance that Santorum will be spiking the football in the end zone as he cruises to a blowout win on Super Tuesday.
I’m going to stop short of predicting that result — for good reason — but right now that is exactly where the data is pointing. Here’s why:
The last two states to vote before Super Tuesday are Michigan and Arizona on February 28th. Based on recent polling, most of the chattering class is predicting that Santorum will win Michigan, but that Romney will stay alive by winning Arizona. This is not a data-based analysis, it is a pure guess based on “conventional wisdom,” and it’s dead wrong.
A PPP poll released Monday found Santorum leading Romney in Michigan by a whopping 15 points. This upset the logic employed by most pundits, who thought that Romney’s Michigan roots and organization would make the state less susceptible to a Santorum surge. However, many believe that Romney will still fall back on a win in “Mitt-friendly” Arizona.
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I’m going to stop short of predicting that result — for good reason — but right now that is exactly where the data is pointing. Here’s why:
The last two states to vote before Super Tuesday are Michigan and Arizona on February 28th. Based on recent polling, most of the chattering class is predicting that Santorum will win Michigan, but that Romney will stay alive by winning Arizona. This is not a data-based analysis, it is a pure guess based on “conventional wisdom,” and it’s dead wrong.
A PPP poll released Monday found Santorum leading Romney in Michigan by a whopping 15 points. This upset the logic employed by most pundits, who thought that Romney’s Michigan roots and organization would make the state less susceptible to a Santorum surge. However, many believe that Romney will still fall back on a win in “Mitt-friendly” Arizona.
Read The Rest Of The Story
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